Steve Keen Interview Spotlight Cards
11 cards (intro + 10)
Key Insight
Steve Keen on Diary of a CEO
Economist Steve Keen breaks down what a Middle East war would mean for oil, food, chips, and the AI bubble.
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Key Insight
Strait of Hormuz
The 21 km chokepoint where 20–30% of global fertilizer, helium, and oil must pass through.
Width of Passage
One of the world's most critical chokepoints
Global Fertilizer Flow
Disruption threatens world food production
World's Helium Supply
Essential for semiconductor manufacturing
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Key Insight
Helium & Chip Crisis
No helium means no semiconductors. South Korea gets 65% from Qatar and makes ⅔ of the world's memory chips.
Korea's Helium from Qatar
Makes ⅔ of the world's memory chips
Minimum Shutdown
Can't stockpile helium. It leaks through walls
Semiconductor Supply at Risk
Tied to a single volatile chokepoint
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Key Insight
Global Food Crisis
Without fertilizer, Earth can support only 1–2 billion people. India could face famine in 2–3 months.
Earth Without Fertilizer
Down from 8 billion supported today
Food Production at Risk
Direct link to fertilizer from the Gulf
India's Famine Timeline
If fertilizer supply is cut off
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Key Insight
Energy = Economy
Energy and GDP move in lockstep. Lose 20% of LNG and global output plummets with it.
LNG Supply at Risk
Passing through the Strait of Hormuz
Potential GDP Drop
Directly correlated with energy decline
Australia's Oil Reserve
When it runs out, food can't reach cities
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Key Insight
Iran's 31 Armies
Iran split its military into 31 provincial units, each self-sufficient. No single strike can collapse the state.
Independent Military Units
Each province has its own forces & resources
Population
Larger than Iraq, more than ¼ of Europe
Preparation Time
Learning from decades of regional wars
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Key Insight
Oil Price Pump & Dump
Announcements that move markets, tipping off allies to profit from the swings. War as a trading strategy.
Deliberate Market Swings
Escalation and de-escalation on a schedule
Dubai Loses Per Day
When airport shuts from a single drone
To Rebuild LNG Facilities
Only 5 companies on Earth can do it
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Key Insight
5 War Scenarios
From nuclear escalation to a Muslim-dominated Middle East: 5 possible endgames, ranked by probability.
Nuclear Option Probability
Iran destroyed, civilization-ending risk
Most Likely Outcome
Iran disables Israel's nuclear capability
Ground Troops Probability
Described as a suicide mission for US forces
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Key Insight
AI Boom & Bust
Tech giants spending $720B on AI in 2026 while revenue runs 5:1 behind. 90% of AI startups already failing.
AI Spend in 2026
Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle
Spending vs Revenue
Historically unsustainable ratio
AI Startup Failure Rate
Up from 70% for general tech startups
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Key Insight
Inequality Breeds War
Inequality produces demagogues. Wars produce equality focus. Then we forget. Rinse and repeat.
German Deflation Rate
When Hitler rose: not inflation, deflation
Unemployment When He Rose
Poverty, not propaganda, drove extremism
Memory Cycle
Post-WWII equality back to extreme inequality
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Key Insight
Build Your Resilience
Money doesn't help if products don't exist. Own your energy, grow some food, reduce dependency on fragile systems.
Home Solar Energy
Your own power, independent of global oil
Universal Basic Income
Necessary if AI eliminates 50% of jobs
Jobs at Risk from AI
Working-class roles threatened by automation
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11 cards · steve keen interview